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Valladares vs Barbadás — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Valladares
Valladares
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Barbadás
Barbadás
3/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Campo Futbol Valladares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Valladares46%
×Draw26%
Barbadás27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valladares
1.45
Barbadás
1.05

Valladares creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Valladares
1.12
Barbadás
0.82

allows per match

Valladares
1.29
Barbadás
1.78

finishing

Valladares+0.00on par
Barbadás+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladares ↓

Barbadás →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Valladares or draw
73%
Valladares or Barbadás
74%
Draw or Barbadás
54%

Winning margin

Valladares wins by 2+
23%
Barbadás wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Valladares 1+ goals
77%
Valladares 2+ goals
42%
Valladares 3+ goals
18%
Barbadás 1+ goals
65%
Barbadás 2+ goals
28%
Barbadás 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Valladares (draw refunded)
63%
Barbadás (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladares at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Barbadás away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladares attack 1.12 + Barbadás defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.45

Barbadás attack 0.82 + Valladares defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Valladares scores more
46%
level
26%
Barbadás scores more
27%

Valladares at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Valladares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valladares vs Barbadás

Valladares and Barbadás drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Futbol Valladares in Vigo.