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Barbadás vs Valladares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barbadás
Barbadás
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Valladares
Valladares
11/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio Os Carrís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barbadás45%
×Draw28%
Valladares27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barbadás
1.32
Valladares
0.97

Barbadás creates 36% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Barbadás
0.88
Valladares
0.82

allows per match

Barbadás
1.12
Valladares
1.76

finishing

Barbadás+0.00on par
Valladares+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbadás ↓

Valladares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Barbadás or draw
73%
Barbadás or Valladares
72%
Draw or Valladares
55%

Winning margin

Barbadás wins by 2+
21%
Valladares wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Barbadás 1+ goals
73%
Barbadás 2+ goals
38%
Barbadás 3+ goals
15%
Valladares 1+ goals
62%
Valladares 2+ goals
25%
Valladares 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barbadás (draw refunded)
62%
Valladares (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barbadás at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

Valladares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barbadás attack 0.88 + Valladares defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.32

Valladares attack 0.82 + Barbadás defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Barbadás scores more
45%
level
28%
Valladares scores more
27%

Barbadás at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Barbadás will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barbadás vs Valladares

Barbadás beat Valladares 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Os Carrís in Barbadás.