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Vall de Uxó vs Ontinyent 1931 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Vall de Uxó
Vall de Uxó
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ontinyent 1931
Ontinyent 1931
10/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 6Estadio Luis Suñer Picó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vall de Uxó44%
×Draw30%
Ontinyent 193126%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vall de Uxó
1.19
Ontinyent 1931
0.84

Vall de Uxó creates 42% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Vall de Uxó
1.15
Ontinyent 1931
0.98

allows per match

Vall de Uxó
0.71
Ontinyent 1931
1.22

finishing

Vall de Uxó+0.00on par
Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vall de Uxó ↓

Ontinyent 1931 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vall de Uxó or draw
74%
Vall de Uxó or Ontinyent 1931
70%
Draw or Ontinyent 1931
56%

Winning margin

Vall de Uxó wins by 2+
19%
Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vall de Uxó 1+ goals
70%
Vall de Uxó 2+ goals
33%
Vall de Uxó 3+ goals
12%
Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals
57%
Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals
21%
Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vall de Uxó (draw refunded)
63%
Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vall de Uxó at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Ontinyent 1931 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vall de Uxó attack 1.15 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ontinyent 1931 attack 0.98 + Vall de Uxó defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vall de Uxó scores more
44%
level
30%
Ontinyent 1931 scores more
26%

Vall de Uxó at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vall de Uxó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vall de Uxó vs Ontinyent 1931

Vall de Uxó and Ontinyent 1931 drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Suñer Picó in Alzira.