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Vall de Uxó vs Castellonense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Vall de Uxó
Vall de Uxó
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Castellonense
Castellonense
3/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 24Estadio José Mangriñán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vall de Uxó39%
×Draw31%
Castellonense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vall de Uxó
1.09
Castellonense
0.92

Vall de Uxó creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Vall de Uxó
1.15
Castellonense
1.12

allows per match

Vall de Uxó
0.71
Castellonense
1.04

finishing

Vall de Uxó+0.00on par
Castellonense+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vall de Uxó ↓

Castellonense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vall de Uxó or draw
70%
Vall de Uxó or Castellonense
69%
Draw or Castellonense
61%

Winning margin

Vall de Uxó wins by 2+
16%
Castellonense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vall de Uxó 1+ goals
66%
Vall de Uxó 2+ goals
30%
Vall de Uxó 3+ goals
10%
Castellonense 1+ goals
60%
Castellonense 2+ goals
23%
Castellonense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vall de Uxó (draw refunded)
56%
Castellonense (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vall de Uxó at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Castellonense away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vall de Uxó attack 1.15 + Castellonense defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Castellonense attack 1.12 + Vall de Uxó defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vall de Uxó scores more
39%
level
31%
Castellonense scores more
30%

Vall de Uxó at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vall de Uxó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vall de Uxó vs Castellonense

Vall de Uxó and Castellonense drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio José Mangriñán in Vall D'Uixó.