Castellonense 1–0 Vall de Uxó: Result & Stats

Castellonense

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vall de Uxó

10/19/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 7Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Castellonense46%

×Draw28%

Vall de Uxó26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellonenseExpected goals in this matchVall de Uxó

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.94

Castellonense

1.34

Vall de Uxó

0.94

Castellonense creates 43% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.47

creates per match

0.85

1.02

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Castellonense

1.47

Vall de Uxó

0.85

allows per match

Castellonense

1.02

Vall de Uxó

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellonense+0.00on par

Vall de Uxó+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellonense ↓

Vall de Uxó →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Castellonense or draw

74%

Castellonense or Vall de Uxó

72%

Draw or Vall de Uxó

54%

Winning margin

Castellonense wins by 2+

22%

Vall de Uxó wins by 2+

Team goals

Castellonense 1+ goals

74%

Castellonense 2+ goals

39%

Castellonense 3+ goals

15%

Vall de Uxó 1+ goals

61%

Vall de Uxó 2+ goals

24%

Vall de Uxó 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Castellonense (draw refunded)

64%

Vall de Uxó (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castellonense at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

Vall de Uxó away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castellonense attack 1.47 + Vall de Uxó defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Vall de Uxó attack 0.85 + Castellonense defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Castellonense scores more

46%

level

28%

Vall de Uxó scores more

26%

Castellonense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Castellonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castellonense vs Vall de Uxó

Castellonense beat Vall de Uxó 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet in Castelló.

Castellonense vs Vall de Uxó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Castellonense vs Vall de Uxó