Valerenga 1–1 KFUM Oslo: Result & Stats

Valerenga

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

KFUM Oslo

F. Thorvaldsen 90'

S. Sandal 63' (pen)

9/20/2025

Eliteserien · Round 22Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Valerenga35%

×Draw26%

KFUM Oslo39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchKFUM Oslo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.40

Valerenga

1.31

KFUM Oslo

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

1.53

creates per match

1.13

1.67

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Valerenga

1.53

KFUM Oslo

1.13

allows per match

Valerenga

1.67

KFUM Oslo

1.10

+0.60scores more than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Valerenga+0.60scores more

KFUM Oslo+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

KFUM Oslo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

61%

Valerenga or KFUM Oslo

74%

Draw or KFUM Oslo

65%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

15%

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

73%

Valerenga 2+ goals

38%

Valerenga 3+ goals

14%

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

75%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

41%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

47%

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 16 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.53 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

KFUM Oslo attack 1.13 + Valerenga defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valerenga scores more

35%

level

26%

KFUM Oslo scores more

39%

KFUM Oslo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

F. Berglie

KFUM Oslo

7.3

Match Events

34'

56'

56'

60'

61'

David Hickson GyeduPenalty confirmed

62'

Oscar Hedvall

63'

S. SandalPenalty

66'

Jonas Lange Hjorth

72'

P. Meliga← E. Sorensen

72'

S. Sjovold← F. Ambina

73'

E. Hagen← P. Strand

78'

H. Udahl← B. Njie

78'

T. Haltvik← M. Njie

83'

A. Nouri← H. Hoseth

90+3'

B. Skaret← J. Hjorth

90+3'

B. Kristensen← D. Hickson

90'

F. Thorvaldsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaKFUM

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots8

0.36Expected Goals (xG)1.35

1Corners4

11Fouls20

Shots

7Total Shots8

1On Target2

4Off Target4

2Blocked2

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

444Total Passes477

362Accurate Passes390

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls20

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1

Eliteserien: Valerenga 1–1 KFUM Oslo

Valerenga and KFUM Oslo drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on September 20, 2025.

Goals: S. Sandal (63' pen), F. Thorvaldsen (90').

KFUM Oslo controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.

Valerenga vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Valerenga 1–1 KFUM Oslo