KFUM Oslo 0–1 Valerenga: Result & Stats

KFUM Oslo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valerenga

F. Thorvaldsen 65'

5/26/2025

Eliteserien · Round 8KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

KFUM Oslo46%

×Draw25%

Valerenga29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.17

KFUM Oslo

1.53

Valerenga

1.17

KFUM Oslo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 17 away

1.43

creates per match

1.32

1.01

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.43

Valerenga

1.32

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.01

Valerenga

1.64

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.26scores less

Valerenga-0.08on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

71%

KFUM Oslo or Valerenga

75%

Draw or Valerenga

54%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

23%

Valerenga wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

78%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

45%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

20%

Valerenga 1+ goals

69%

Valerenga 2+ goals

33%

Valerenga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

61%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.01 · 23 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.43 + Valerenga defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

Valerenga attack 1.32 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

46%

level

25%

Valerenga scores more

29%

KFUM Oslo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

E. Sorensen

Valerenga · M

7.9

Match Events

18'

Bjorn Martin Kristensen

39'

Simen HestnesCard upgrade

40'

Simen Hestnes

46'

T. Haltvik← B. Kristensen

54'

Hakon Helland Hoseth

54'

Filip Thorvaldsen

65'

F. Thorvaldsen↳ E. Sorensen

72'

Ayoub Aleesami

73'

D. Hickson← R. Rasch

78'

A. Nouri← H. Hoseth

78'

D. Schneider← M. Tonnessen

78'

N. Pallas← Vinicius Nogueira

83'

N. Semmen← O. Okeke

87'

H. Sjatil← F. Thorvaldsen

88'

Aaron Kiil Olsen

90+2'

S. Sjovold← E. Hagen

90+2'

M. Rijks← M. Brajanac

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KFUMValerenga

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots12

1.19Expected Goals (xG)0.98

5Corners10

13Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots12

1On Target2

7Off Target4

5Blocked6

6Inside Box8

7Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

424Total Passes443

352Accurate Passes348

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga

Valerenga beat KFUM Oslo 1-0 in Eliteserien on May 26, 2025.

Goals: F. Thorvaldsen (65').

Valerenga controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.

KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga