Valerenga 1–1 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Valerenga

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Haugesund

P. Strand 71'

S. Diarra 7'

8/13/2023

Eliteserien · Round 18Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Valerenga50%

×Draw22%

Haugesund28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.39

Valerenga

1.93

Haugesund

1.39

Valerenga creates 39% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

1.56

creates per match

1.10

1.67

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Valerenga

1.56

Haugesund

1.10

allows per match

Valerenga

1.67

Haugesund

2.30

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Valerenga+0.39scores more

Haugesund-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

72%

Valerenga or Haugesund

78%

Draw or Haugesund

50%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

28%

Haugesund wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

85%

Valerenga 2+ goals

57%

Valerenga 3+ goals

30%

Haugesund 1+ goals

75%

Haugesund 2+ goals

40%

Haugesund 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

64%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.67 · 22 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.30 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.56 + Haugesund defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.93

Haugesund attack 1.10 + Valerenga defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Valerenga scores more

50%

level

22%

Haugesund scores more

28%

Valerenga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

F. Oldrup Jensen

Valerenga · D

7.9

Match Events

7'

S. Diarra

41'

Mads Berg Sande

53'

Claus Niyukuri

64'

Ulrik Tillung Fredriksen

67'

H. Bjørdal← V. Hedenstad

67'

L. Zuta← A. Hammer Kjelsen

71'

P. Strand↳ M. Riisnæs

73'

V. Solheim← C. Niyukuri

74'

M. Samuelsen← B. Njie

77'

Seedy Jatta

78'

T. Børven← S. Jatta

80'

Vegard Solheim

83'

A. Søderlund← S. Diarra

90'

J. Eng← D. Håkans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaHaugesund

Overview

48%Possession52%

6Total Shots5

1.18Expected Goals (xG)0.55

8Corners0

8Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots5

3On Target1

1Off Target3

2Blocked1

5Inside Box3

1Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

431Total Passes481

341Accurate Passes401

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Valerenga vs Haugesund

Valerenga and Haugesund drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on August 13, 2023.

Goals: S. Diarra (7'), P. Strand (71').

Haugesund controlled possession (52%) and registered 5 shots to 6.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.

Valerenga vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Valerenga vs Haugesund