Haugesund 1–1 Valerenga: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valerenga

Bruno Leite 88'

T. Børven 60'

11/6/2022

Eliteserien · Round 29Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Haugesund40%

×Draw26%

Valerenga34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.27

Haugesund

1.39

Valerenga

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 26 away

1.04

creates per match

1.18

1.36

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Haugesund

1.04

Valerenga

1.18

allows per match

Haugesund

1.36

Valerenga

1.74

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Valerenga-0.03on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

66%

Haugesund or Valerenga

74%

Draw or Valerenga

60%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

19%

Valerenga wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

75%

Haugesund 2+ goals

40%

Haugesund 3+ goals

16%

Valerenga 1+ goals

72%

Valerenga 2+ goals

36%

Valerenga 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

54%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 18 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.74 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.04 + Valerenga defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.39

Valerenga attack 1.18 + Haugesund defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Haugesund scores more

40%

level

26%

Valerenga scores more

34%

Haugesund at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Krygård

Haugesund · D

7.5

Match Events

37'

Magnus Christensen

46'

O. Holm← H. Bjørdal

60'

T. Børven↳ A. Layouni

62'

J. Eskesen← C. Zafeiris

63'

Thore Baardsen Pedersen

71'

M. Riisnæs← J. Eng

72'

Vegar Eggen Hedenstad

77'

M. Samuelsen← M. Sande

78'

Bruno Leite← M. Christensen

78'

N. Walstad← T. Pedersen

78'

84'

88'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundValerenga

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots5

3Corners3

14Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots5

5On Target3

3Off Target1

2Blocked1

6Inside Box4

4Outside Box1

Passing

47%Possession53%

477Total Passes556

384Accurate Passes456

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1