Valerenga 2–2 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Valerenga

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Haugesund

P. Michael 81'

F. Carvalho 23'

F. Knudsen 64'

V. Skjerve 16'

5/6/2018

Eliteserien · Round 8Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Valerenga52%

×Draw22%

Haugesund26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.35

Valerenga

1.98

Haugesund

1.35

Valerenga creates 47% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 30 away

1.61

creates per match

1.07

1.64

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Valerenga

1.61

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

Valerenga

1.64

Haugesund

2.36

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Valerenga+0.35scores more

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

74%

Valerenga or Haugesund

78%

Draw or Haugesund

48%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

30%

Haugesund wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

86%

Valerenga 2+ goals

59%

Valerenga 3+ goals

31%

Haugesund 1+ goals

74%

Haugesund 2+ goals

39%

Haugesund 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

67%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.64 · 24 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.61 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.98

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Valerenga defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Valerenga scores more

52%

level

22%

Haugesund scores more

26%

Valerenga at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

F. Carvalho

Valerenga · D

7.7

Match Events

16'

V. Skjerve↳ J. Nilsen

23'

F. Carvalho

33'

Daniel Fredheim Holm

57'

F. Knudsen← B. Karamoko

64'

F. Knudsen↳ A. Stølås

68'

M. Grødem← F. Myhre

68'

B. Finne← S. Juklerød

70'

Bruno Leite← F. Gytkjær

77'

P. Michael← A. Nouri

81'

P. Michael↳ S. Johnson

90+1'

K. Velde← B. Akintola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaHaugesund

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots7

6Corners4

8Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots7

3On Target4

8Off Target1

3Blocked2

8Inside Box6

6Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

480Total Passes306

386Accurate Passes208

80%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

0Offsides3