Valerenga 1–3 Bodo/Glimt: Result & Stats

Valerenga

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Bodo/Glimt

J. El Abdellaoui 90'

F. Moumbagna 66', 31'

A. Pellegrino 48'

6/4/2023

Eliteserien · Round 9Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Valerenga30%

×Draw23%

Bodo/Glimt47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchBodo/Glimt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.86

Valerenga

1.46

Bodo/Glimt

1.86

Bodo/Glimt creates 27% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 31 away

1.58

creates per match

2.01

1.72

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Valerenga

1.58

Bodo/Glimt

2.01

allows per match

Valerenga

1.72

Bodo/Glimt

1.33

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Valerenga+0.42scores more

Bodo/Glimt+0.02on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Bodo/Glimt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

53%

Valerenga or Bodo/Glimt

77%

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

70%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

14%

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

77%

Valerenga 2+ goals

43%

Valerenga 3+ goals

18%

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

84%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

55%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

39%

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.72 · 21 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.58 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.01 + Valerenga defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Valerenga scores more

30%

level

23%

Bodo/Glimt scores more

47%

Bodo/Glimt at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

F. Moumbagna

Bodo/Glimt · F

8.5

Match Events

19'

Faris Pemi Moumbagna

31'

F. Moumbagna↳ A. Pellegrino

48'

A. Pellegrino↳ A. Grønbæk

55'

L. Zuta← O. Holm

57'

Fredrik Jensen

63'

Hugo Vetlesen

66'

F. Moumbagna↳ A. Sørensen

68'

J. Eng← M. Ofkir

71'

I. Amundsen← B. Moe

74'

S. Fet← H. Vetlesen

74'

O. Elabdellaoui← B. Wembangomo

76'

J. El Abdellaoui← S. Jatta

77'

F. Thorvaldsen← D. Håkans

87'

S. Sørli← A. Pellegrino

87'

O. Bjørtuft← M. Lode

90'

J. El Abdellaoui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaBodo/Glimt

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots9

1Corners2

7Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots9

3On Target5

7Off Target3

3Blocked1

12Inside Box7

1Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

441Total Passes499

381Accurate Passes431

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1