Bodo/Glimt 7–2 Valerenga: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodo/GlimtExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.95

Bodo/Glimt

2.17

Valerenga

0.95

Bodo/Glimt creates 128% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

2.68

creates per match

1.15

0.75

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt

2.68

Valerenga

1.15

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt

0.75

Valerenga

1.67

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.63scores more

Valerenga-0.03on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw

85%

Bodo/Glimt or Valerenga

80%

Draw or Valerenga

35%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

41%

Valerenga wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

89%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

64%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

36%

Valerenga 1+ goals

61%

Valerenga 2+ goals

25%

Valerenga 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

81%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.75 · 29 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.67 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.68 + Valerenga defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Valerenga attack 1.15 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more

65%

level

20%

Valerenga scores more

15%

Bodo/Glimt at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

I. Maatta

Bodo/Glimt · M

8.9

Match Events

4'

U. Saltnes↳ I. Maatta

7'

M. Grundetjern↳ F. Ambina

20'

25'

46'

49'

52'

61'

66'

66'

68'

69'

V. Hedenstad← A. Olsen

69'

M. Brajanac← M. Grundetjern

72'

O. L. Bjortuft↳ P. Berg

78'

F. Thorvaldsen← M. Ofkir

78'

S. Fet

79'

M. Jorgensen← J. Hauge

81'

A. Klynge← H. Evjen

87'

P. Berg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bodo/GlimtValerenga

Overview

64%Possession36%

23Total Shots5

4.33Expected Goals (xG)0.49

6Corners1

13Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots5

13On Target2

7Off Target3

3Blocked0

17Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

690Total Passes383

618Accurate Passes309

90%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls9

1Offsides1