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Valerenga vs Aalesund — Eliteserien 2026

EliteserienEliteserien·2026📍Intility Arena
Valerenga
Valerenga
Preview
17:00
Aalesund
Aalesund
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 5:00 PM
Tournament
Eliteserien · Regular Season - 14
Referee
D. Higraff
Venue
Intility Arena, Oslo
71%
Valerenga
model favours
71%17%12%

Aalesund are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Valerenga71%
×Draw17%
Aalesund12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valerenga
2.37
Aalesund
0.85

Valerenga creates 179% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Valerenga
2.14
Aalesund
1.00

allows per match

Valerenga
0.71
Aalesund
2.60

finishing

Valerenga+0.00on par
Aalesund+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Aalesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw
88%
Valerenga or Aalesund
83%
Draw or Aalesund
29%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+
48%
Aalesund wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals
91%
Valerenga 2+ goals
68%
Valerenga 3+ goals
42%
Aalesund 1+ goals
57%
Aalesund 2+ goals
21%
Aalesund 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)
86%
Aalesund (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 2.14 + Aalesund defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.37

Aalesund attack 1.00 + Valerenga defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Valerenga scores more
71%
level
17%
Aalesund scores more
12%

Valerenga at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Valerenga score first in only 27% of matches
  • Aalesund score first in only 30% of matches
  • Both teams score in 73% of Valerenga’s matches
  • 67% of Valerenga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Aalesund’s matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (67% and 60% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Valerenga
Attack-heavy
Aalesund
Balanced
52%PossessionBiggest gap46%
81%Pass accuracy78%
15.5Shots14.1
1.60xG1.45
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ValerengaAalesund

Head-to-head

First-ever meeting

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Valerenga
LWLDW
Aalesund
DWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Valerenga host Aalesund

July 16, 2026: Valerenga take on Aalesund in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Valerenga host Aalesund at Intility Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.