Aalesund 0–1 Valerenga: Result & Stats

Aalesund

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valerenga

D. Håkans 79'

4/10/2023

Eliteserien · Round 1Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Aalesund47%

×Draw26%

Valerenga27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.06

Aalesund

1.48

Valerenga

1.06

Aalesund creates 40% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.13

creates per match

0.50

1.63

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Aalesund

1.13

Valerenga

0.50

allows per match

Aalesund

1.63

Valerenga

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalesund+0.00on par

Valerenga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

73%

Aalesund or Valerenga

74%

Draw or Valerenga

53%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

23%

Valerenga wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

77%

Aalesund 2+ goals

43%

Aalesund 3+ goals

19%

Valerenga 1+ goals

65%

Valerenga 2+ goals

29%

Valerenga 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

63%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Valerenga away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.13 + Valerenga defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.48

Valerenga attack 0.50 + Aalesund defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aalesund scores more

47%

level

26%

Valerenga scores more

27%

Aalesund at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Sjøeng

Valerenga · G

8.0

Match Events

27'

Bjorn Martin Kristensen

43'

Leonard Žuta

46'

P. Strand← F. Oldrup Jensen

56'

Ole Martin Lekven Kolskogen

63'

I. Atanga← K. Ødemarksbakken

63'

E. Moses← B. Kristensen

68'

M. Ofkir← J. Eng

68'

S. Jatta← T. Børven

73'

M. Riisnæs← O. Holm

79'

D. Håkans↳ H. Bjørdal

82'

K. Barmen← M. Karlsbakk

82'

A. Stølås← T. Murray

82'

K. Lunding← J. Moe

87'

S. Juklerød← D. Håkans

90+5'

Alexander Munksgaard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalesundValerenga

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots9

3Corners1

12Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots9

5On Target3

2Off Target2

7Blocked4

9Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

387Total Passes446

289Accurate Passes360

75%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1