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Valerenga vs Aalesund — Eliteserien 2026

Valerenga
Valerenga
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aalesund
Aalesund
8/7/2022EliteserienEliteserien · Round 17Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Valerenga77%
×Draw15%
Aalesund9%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valerenga
2.65
Aalesund
0.77

Valerenga creates 244% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Valerenga
2.44
Aalesund
0.86

allows per match

Valerenga
0.67
Aalesund
2.86

finishing

Valerenga+0.00on par
Aalesund+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Aalesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw
91%
Valerenga or Aalesund
85%
Draw or Aalesund
23%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+
55%
Aalesund wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals
93%
Valerenga 2+ goals
74%
Valerenga 3+ goals
48%
Aalesund 1+ goals
54%
Aalesund 2+ goals
18%
Aalesund 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)
90%
Aalesund (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Aalesund away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 2.44 + Aalesund defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.65

Aalesund attack 0.86 + Valerenga defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Valerenga scores more
77%
level
15%
Aalesund scores more
9%

Valerenga at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valerenga vs Aalesund

Valerenga beat Aalesund 4-0 in Eliteserien on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.