Vålerenga U19 4–1 Tromsø U19: Result & Stats

Vålerenga U19

FT

4 – 1

Tromsø U19

5/5/2022

Nasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 5Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vålerenga U1945%

×Draw20%

Tromsø U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vålerenga U19Expected goals in this matchTromsø U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

2.06

Vålerenga U19

2.34

Tromsø U19

2.06

Vålerenga U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

2.52

creates per match

1.89

2.22

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Vålerenga U19

2.52

Tromsø U19

1.89

allows per match

Vålerenga U19

2.22

Tromsø U19

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vålerenga U19+0.00on par

Tromsø U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vålerenga U19 ↓

Tromsø U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Vålerenga U19 or draw

65%

Vålerenga U19 or Tromsø U19

80%

Draw or Tromsø U19

55%

Winning margin

Vålerenga U19 wins by 2+

27%

Tromsø U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vålerenga U19 1+ goals

90%

Vålerenga U19 2+ goals

67%

Vålerenga U19 3+ goals

41%

Tromsø U19 1+ goals

87%

Tromsø U19 2+ goals

61%

Tromsø U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Vålerenga U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Tromsø U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vålerenga U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

Tromsø U19 away — creates 1.89, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vålerenga U19 attack 2.52 + Tromsø U19 defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.34

Tromsø U19 attack 1.89 + Vålerenga U19 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vålerenga U19 scores more

45%

level

20%

Tromsø U19 scores more

35%

Vålerenga U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vålerenga U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff