Tromsø U19 2–0 Vålerenga U19: Result & Stats

Tromsø U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vålerenga U19

3/10/2024

Nasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 4Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tromsø U1947%

×Draw20%

Vålerenga U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tromsø U19Expected goals in this matchVålerenga U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.92

Tromsø U19

2.33

Vålerenga U19

1.92

Tromsø U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

2.39

creates per match

1.95

1.89

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Tromsø U19

2.39

Vålerenga U19

1.95

allows per match

Tromsø U19

1.89

Vålerenga U19

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tromsø U19+0.00on par

Vålerenga U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromsø U19 ↓

Vålerenga U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Tromsø U19 or draw

67%

Tromsø U19 or Vålerenga U19

80%

Draw or Vålerenga U19

53%

Winning margin

Tromsø U19 wins by 2+

28%

Vålerenga U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tromsø U19 1+ goals

90%

Tromsø U19 2+ goals

67%

Tromsø U19 3+ goals

41%

Vålerenga U19 1+ goals

85%

Vålerenga U19 2+ goals

57%

Vålerenga U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Tromsø U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Vålerenga U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromsø U19 at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

Vålerenga U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromsø U19 attack 2.39 + Vålerenga U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.33

Vålerenga U19 attack 1.95 + Tromsø U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tromsø U19 scores more

47%

level

20%

Vålerenga U19 scores more

33%

Tromsø U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tromsø U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff