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Vålerenga U19 vs Stabæk U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Vålerenga U19
Vålerenga U19
CANC
14:30
Stabæk U19
Stabæk U19
6/22/2021Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group B - 5Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vålerenga U1939%
×Draw19%
Stabæk U1942%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vålerenga U19
2.29
Stabæk U19
2.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

creates per match

Vålerenga U19
2.52
Stabæk U19
2.56

allows per match

Vålerenga U19
2.22
Stabæk U19
2.06

finishing

Vålerenga U19+0.00on par
Stabæk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vålerenga U19 ↓

Stabæk U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Vålerenga U19 or draw
58%
Vålerenga U19 or Stabæk U19
81%
Draw or Stabæk U19
61%

Winning margin

Vålerenga U19 wins by 2+
22%
Stabæk U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Vålerenga U19 1+ goals
90%
Vålerenga U19 2+ goals
66%
Vålerenga U19 3+ goals
40%
Stabæk U19 1+ goals
91%
Stabæk U19 2+ goals
69%
Stabæk U19 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Vålerenga U19 (draw refunded)
48%
Stabæk U19 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vålerenga U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

Stabæk U19 away — creates 2.56, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vålerenga U19 attack 2.52 + Stabæk U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.29

Stabæk U19 attack 2.56 + Vålerenga U19 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vålerenga U19 scores more
39%
level
19%
Stabæk U19 scores more
42%

Stabæk U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stabæk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vålerenga U19 host Stabæk U19

June 22, 2021: Vålerenga U19 take on Stabæk U19 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vålerenga U19 host Stabæk U19 at Intility Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.