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Stabæk U19 vs Vålerenga U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Stabæk U19
Stabæk U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vålerenga U19
Vålerenga U19
4/2/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 6Nadderud Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Stabæk U1964%
×Draw17%
Vålerenga U1919%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabæk U19
2.76
Vålerenga U19
1.45

Stabæk U19 creates 90% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 22 away

creates per match

Stabæk U19
3.25
Vålerenga U19
1.95

allows per match

Stabæk U19
0.95
Vålerenga U19
2.27

finishing

Stabæk U19+0.00on par
Vålerenga U19+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabæk U19 ↓

Vålerenga U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Stabæk U19 or draw
81%
Stabæk U19 or Vålerenga U19
83%
Draw or Vålerenga U19
36%

Winning margin

Stabæk U19 wins by 2+
44%
Vålerenga U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stabæk U19 1+ goals
94%
Stabæk U19 2+ goals
76%
Stabæk U19 3+ goals
51%
Vålerenga U19 1+ goals
77%
Vålerenga U19 2+ goals
42%
Vålerenga U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Stabæk U19 (draw refunded)
78%
Vålerenga U19 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabæk U19 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Vålerenga U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabæk U19 attack 3.25 + Vålerenga U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.76

Vålerenga U19 attack 1.95 + Stabæk U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Stabæk U19 scores more
64%
level
17%
Vålerenga U19 scores more
19%

Stabæk U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Stabæk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stabæk U19 vs Vålerenga U19

Stabæk U19 beat Vålerenga U19 2-0 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on April 2, 2024.

The match was played at Nadderud Kunstgress in Bekkestua.