Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vålerenga U19 vs KFUM U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Vålerenga U19
Vålerenga U19
CANC
14:00
KFUM U19
KFUM U19
2/13/2021Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group B - 1Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vålerenga U1965%
×Draw16%
KFUM U1919%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vålerenga U19
3.01
KFUM U19
1.61

Vålerenga U19 creates 87% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 4 away

creates per match

Vålerenga U19
2.52
KFUM U19
1.00

allows per match

Vålerenga U19
2.22
KFUM U19
3.50

finishing

Vålerenga U19+0.00on par
KFUM U19+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vålerenga U19 ↓

KFUM U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Vålerenga U19 or draw
81%
Vålerenga U19 or KFUM U19
84%
Draw or KFUM U19
35%

Winning margin

Vålerenga U19 wins by 2+
45%
KFUM U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vålerenga U19 1+ goals
95%
Vålerenga U19 2+ goals
80%
Vålerenga U19 3+ goals
56%
KFUM U19 1+ goals
80%
KFUM U19 2+ goals
48%
KFUM U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Vålerenga U19 (draw refunded)
78%
KFUM U19 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vålerenga U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

KFUM U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vålerenga U19 attack 2.52 + KFUM U19 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.01

KFUM U19 attack 1.00 + Vålerenga U19 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vålerenga U19 scores more
65%
level
16%
KFUM U19 scores more
19%

Vålerenga U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Vålerenga U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vålerenga U19 face KFUM U19 (Nasjonal U19 Champions League)

Nasjonal U19 Champions League returns with Vålerenga U19 hosting KFUM U19. Match starts February 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vålerenga U19 host KFUM U19 at Intility Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.