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KFUM U19 vs Vålerenga U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

KFUM U19
KFUM U19
CANC
16:45
Vålerenga U19
Vålerenga U19
6/30/2021Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group B - 6KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KFUM U1943%
×Draw20%
Vålerenga U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM U19
2.30
Vålerenga U19
2.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 22 away

creates per match

KFUM U19
2.33
Vålerenga U19
1.95

allows per match

KFUM U19
2.33
Vålerenga U19
2.27

finishing

KFUM U19+0.00on par
Vålerenga U19+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM U19 ↓

Vålerenga U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

KFUM U19 or draw
63%
KFUM U19 or Vålerenga U19
80%
Draw or Vålerenga U19
57%

Winning margin

KFUM U19 wins by 2+
25%
Vålerenga U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

KFUM U19 1+ goals
90%
KFUM U19 2+ goals
67%
KFUM U19 3+ goals
40%
Vålerenga U19 1+ goals
88%
Vålerenga U19 2+ goals
63%
Vålerenga U19 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

KFUM U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Vålerenga U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Vålerenga U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM U19 attack 2.33 + Vålerenga U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.30

Vålerenga U19 attack 1.95 + KFUM U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KFUM U19 scores more
43%
level
20%
Vålerenga U19 scores more
37%

KFUM U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KFUM U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KFUM U19 vs Vålerenga U19 — Match Preview

KFUM U19 face Vålerenga U19 on June 30, 2021 in this Nasjonal U19 Champions League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

KFUM U19 host Vålerenga U19 at KFUM Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.