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Vålerenga U19 vs Bodø / Glimt U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Vålerenga U19
Vålerenga U19
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Bodø / Glimt U19
Bodø / Glimt U19
3/25/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 5Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vålerenga U1954%
×Draw19%
Bodø / Glimt U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vålerenga U19
2.68
Bodø / Glimt U19
1.88

Vålerenga U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vålerenga U19
2.52
Bodø / Glimt U19
1.53

allows per match

Vålerenga U19
2.22
Bodø / Glimt U19
2.84

finishing

Vålerenga U19+0.00on par
Bodø / Glimt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vålerenga U19 ↓

Bodø / Glimt U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Vålerenga U19 or draw
73%
Vålerenga U19 or Bodø / Glimt U19
81%
Draw or Bodø / Glimt U19
46%

Winning margin

Vålerenga U19 wins by 2+
35%
Bodø / Glimt U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vålerenga U19 1+ goals
93%
Vålerenga U19 2+ goals
74%
Vålerenga U19 3+ goals
49%
Bodø / Glimt U19 1+ goals
85%
Bodø / Glimt U19 2+ goals
56%
Bodø / Glimt U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Vålerenga U19 (draw refunded)
67%
Bodø / Glimt U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vålerenga U19 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

Bodø / Glimt U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vålerenga U19 attack 2.52 + Bodø / Glimt U19 defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.68

Bodø / Glimt U19 attack 1.53 + Vålerenga U19 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vålerenga U19 scores more
54%
level
19%
Bodø / Glimt U19 scores more
27%

Vålerenga U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vålerenga U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vålerenga U19 vs Bodø / Glimt U19

Vålerenga U19 beat Bodø / Glimt U19 4-3 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on March 25, 2024.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.