Bodø / Glimt U19 2–0 Vålerenga U19: Result & Stats

Bodø / Glimt U19

FT

2 – 0

Vålerenga U19

1/28/2024

Nasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 2Nordlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bodø / Glimt U1928%

×Draw19%

Vålerenga U1953%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodø / Glimt U19Expected goals in this matchVålerenga U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.44

Bodø / Glimt U19

1.75

Vålerenga U19

2.44

Vålerenga U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

1.22

creates per match

1.95

2.94

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Bodø / Glimt U19

1.22

Vålerenga U19

1.95

allows per match

Bodø / Glimt U19

2.94

Vålerenga U19

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bodø / Glimt U19+0.00on par

Vålerenga U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodø / Glimt U19 ↓

Vålerenga U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Bodø / Glimt U19 or draw

47%

Bodø / Glimt U19 or Vålerenga U19

81%

Draw or Vålerenga U19

72%

Winning margin

Bodø / Glimt U19 wins by 2+

13%

Vålerenga U19 wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Bodø / Glimt U19 1+ goals

83%

Bodø / Glimt U19 2+ goals

52%

Bodø / Glimt U19 3+ goals

25%

Vålerenga U19 1+ goals

91%

Vålerenga U19 2+ goals

70%

Vålerenga U19 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Bodø / Glimt U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Vålerenga U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodø / Glimt U19 at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.94 · 18 matches

Vålerenga U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodø / Glimt U19 attack 1.22 + Vålerenga U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.75

Vålerenga U19 attack 1.95 + Bodø / Glimt U19 defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bodø / Glimt U19 scores more

28%

level

19%

Vålerenga U19 scores more

53%

Vålerenga U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vålerenga U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff