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Vålerenga II vs Egersund — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Vålerenga II
Vålerenga II
FT
1 – 8
HT: 0 – 3
Egersund
Egersund
11/4/20232. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vålerenga II29%
×Draw22%
Egersund49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vålerenga II
1.42
Egersund
1.92

Egersund creates 35% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 38 away

creates per match

Vålerenga II
1.64
Egersund
2.08

allows per match

Vålerenga II
1.76
Egersund
1.21

finishing

Vålerenga II+0.00on par
Egersund+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vålerenga II ↓

Egersund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vålerenga II or draw
51%
Vålerenga II or Egersund
78%
Draw or Egersund
71%

Winning margin

Vålerenga II wins by 2+
13%
Egersund wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Vålerenga II 1+ goals
76%
Vålerenga II 2+ goals
41%
Vålerenga II 3+ goals
17%
Egersund 1+ goals
85%
Egersund 2+ goals
57%
Egersund 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Vålerenga II (draw refunded)
37%
Egersund (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vålerenga II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Egersund away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vålerenga II attack 1.64 + Egersund defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Egersund attack 2.08 + Vålerenga II defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vålerenga II scores more
29%
level
22%
Egersund scores more
49%

Egersund at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Egersund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vålerenga II vs Egersund

Egersund beat Vålerenga II 8-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.