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Egersund vs Vålerenga II — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Egersund
Egersund
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Vålerenga II
Vålerenga II
4/17/20232. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Egersund Idrettsparken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Egersund75%
×Draw14%
Vålerenga II11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egersund
2.97
Vålerenga II
1.09

Egersund creates 172% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 32 away

creates per match

Egersund
2.76
Vålerenga II
1.13

allows per match

Egersund
1.05
Vålerenga II
3.19

finishing

Egersund+0.00on par
Vålerenga II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egersund ↓

Vålerenga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Egersund or draw
89%
Egersund or Vålerenga II
86%
Draw or Vålerenga II
25%

Winning margin

Egersund wins by 2+
55%
Vålerenga II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Egersund 1+ goals
95%
Egersund 2+ goals
79%
Egersund 3+ goals
56%
Vålerenga II 1+ goals
66%
Vålerenga II 2+ goals
30%
Vålerenga II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Egersund (draw refunded)
87%
Vålerenga II (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egersund at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

Vålerenga II away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egersund attack 2.76 + Vålerenga II defence 3.19 → ÷2 → 2.97

Vålerenga II attack 1.13 + Egersund defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Egersund scores more
75%
level
14%
Vålerenga II scores more
11%

Egersund at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Egersund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Egersund vs Vålerenga II

Egersund beat Vålerenga II 5-0 in 2. Division - Group 1 on April 17, 2023.

The match was played at Egersund Idrettsparken in Egersund.