Valenciennes 2–1 Sochaux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Valenciennes

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sochaux

N. Diliberto 58'

J. Cuffaut 25' (pen)

A. Kalulu 31'

10/1/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade du Hainaut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 159+ matches

Valenciennes37%

×Draw29%

Sochaux34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValenciennesExpected goals in this matchSochaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.09

Valenciennes

1.15

Sochaux

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 175 home / 159 away

1.21

creates per match

0.99

1.20

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Valenciennes

1.21

Sochaux

0.99

allows per match

Valenciennes

1.20

Sochaux

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valenciennes ↓

Sochaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Valenciennes or draw

66%

Valenciennes or Sochaux

71%

Draw or Sochaux

63%

Winning margin

Valenciennes wins by 2+

15%

Sochaux wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Valenciennes 1+ goals

68%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

32%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

11%

Sochaux 1+ goals

66%

Sochaux 2+ goals

30%

Sochaux 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

52%

Sochaux (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valenciennes at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.20 · 175 matches

Sochaux away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valenciennes attack 1.21 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sochaux attack 0.99 + Valenciennes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Valenciennes scores more

37%

level

29%

Sochaux scores more

34%

Valenciennes at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

G. Larsonneur

Valenciennes · G

7.7

Match Events

15'

Mohamed Kaba

25'

J. CuffautPenalty

31'

A. Kalulu↳ T. Mauricio

58'

N. Diliberto

60'

Mathis Picouleau

66'

I. Hamache← M. Picouleau

67'

N. Innocenti← M. Noubissi

67'

L. Nomel← Q. Lecoeuche

70'

Rassoul Ndiaye

70'

R. Pereira De Sa← F. Kanouté

72'

Nassim Innocenti

76'

H. Tebily← T. Mauricio

85'

M. Do Couto← M. Doumbia

89'

Maxime Do Couto

90+4'

Noah Diliberto

90+2'

F. Ayité← J. Berthomier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValenciennesSochaux

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots21

2Corners7

8Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots21

6On Target7

0Off Target10

3Blocked4

6Inside Box13

3Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

349Total Passes487

260Accurate Passes409

74%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Ligue 2: Valenciennes 2–1 Sochaux

Valenciennes beat Sochaux 2-1 in Ligue 2 on October 1, 2022.

Goals: J. Cuffaut (25' pen), A. Kalulu (31'), N. Diliberto (58').

Sochaux controlled possession (59%) and registered 21 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade du Hainaut in Valenciennes.

Valenciennes vs Sochaux — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Valenciennes 2–1 Sochaux