Sochaux 1–1 Valenciennes: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Sochaux

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Valenciennes

T. Mauricio 63'

F. Ayité 11'

12/21/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade Auguste-Bonal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 158+ matches

Sochaux44%

×Draw28%

Valenciennes29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SochauxExpected goals in this matchValenciennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.02

Sochaux

1.33

Valenciennes

1.02

Sochaux creates 30% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 178 away

1.23

creates per match

0.95

1.08

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Sochaux

1.23

Valenciennes

0.95

allows per match

Sochaux

1.08

Valenciennes

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sochaux+0.00on par

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochaux ↓

Valenciennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sochaux or draw

71%

Sochaux or Valenciennes

72%

Draw or Valenciennes

56%

Winning margin

Sochaux wins by 2+

20%

Valenciennes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sochaux 1+ goals

74%

Sochaux 2+ goals

38%

Sochaux 3+ goals

15%

Valenciennes 1+ goals

64%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

27%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sochaux (draw refunded)

60%

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochaux at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 178 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochaux attack 1.23 + Valenciennes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Valenciennes attack 0.95 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sochaux scores more

44%

level

28%

Valenciennes scores more

29%

Sochaux at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

M. Senaya

Sochaux · D

7.6

Match Events

11'

F. Ayité↳ Q. Lecoeuche

31'

Ousseynou Thioune

45+1'

Quentin Lecoeuche

46'

Tony Mauricio

46'

M. Do Couto← Steve Ambri

46'

R. Ndiaye← O. Thioune

54'

Quentin Lecoeuche

54'

Quentin Lecoeuche

58'

L. Dos Santos← S. Yatabaré

63'

T. Mauricio↳ A. Kalulu

64'

Y. Kitala← J. Lopy

67'

O. Sidibé← B. Guillaume

80'

H. Tebily← A. Kalulu

80'

J. Masson← N. Diliberto

80'

I. Hamache← G. Robail

86'

Lucas Chevalier

89'

A. Virginius← T. Mauricio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SochauxValenciennes

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots6

6Corners8

17Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots6

6On Target2

5Off Target2

3Blocked2

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

501Total Passes301

386Accurate Passes189

77%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

5Offsides2