Valenciennes 2–0 Grenoble: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Valenciennes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Grenoble

Flamarion 56'

N. Venema 29'

4/27/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 35Stade du Hainaut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 151+ matches

Valenciennes41%

×Draw28%

Grenoble31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValenciennesExpected goals in this matchGrenoble

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.06

Valenciennes

1.28

Grenoble

1.06

Valenciennes creates 21% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 151 away

1.21

creates per match

0.93

1.20

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Valenciennes

1.21

Grenoble

0.93

allows per match

Valenciennes

1.20

Grenoble

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valenciennes ↓

Grenoble →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Valenciennes or draw

69%

Valenciennes or Grenoble

72%

Draw or Grenoble

59%

Winning margin

Valenciennes wins by 2+

19%

Grenoble wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Valenciennes 1+ goals

72%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

37%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

14%

Grenoble 1+ goals

65%

Grenoble 2+ goals

29%

Grenoble 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

57%

Grenoble (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valenciennes at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.20 · 175 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.35 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valenciennes attack 1.21 + Grenoble defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.28

Grenoble attack 0.93 + Valenciennes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Valenciennes scores more

41%

level

28%

Grenoble scores more

31%

Valenciennes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

96

Flamarion

Valenciennes · M

8.9

Match Events

14'

17'

29'

45'

56'

58'

A. Sanyang← L. Joseph

58'

N. Thio← A. Sbaï

60'

T. Valls← N. Mbemba

67'

P. Meïssa Ba← V. Postolachi

67'

D. Rigo← S. Touray

69'

M. Lilepo← M. Oyewusi

69'

J. Masson← S. Bansé

70'

A. Boutoutaou← Flamarion

75'

S. Doucouré← N. Venema

88'

Joachim Kayi Sanda

90'

T. Lienard← A. Linguet

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValenciennesGrenoble

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots15

2Corners5

15Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots15

6On Target1

5Off Target9

3Blocked5

11Inside Box7

3Outside Box8

Passing

54%Possession46%

507Total Passes430

444Accurate Passes370

88%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Ligue 2: Valenciennes 2–0 Grenoble

Valenciennes beat Grenoble 2-0 in Ligue 2 on April 27, 2024.

Goals: N. Venema (29'), Flamarion (56').

Valenciennes controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stade du Hainaut in Valenciennes.

Valenciennes vs Grenoble — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Valenciennes 2–0 Grenoble