Grenoble 3–0 Valenciennes: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Grenoble

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Valenciennes

A. Anani 88'

J. Correa 85'

J. Tell 31' (pen)

4/19/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 34Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 152+ matches

Grenoble44%

×Draw28%

Valenciennes28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrenobleExpected goals in this matchValenciennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.96

Grenoble

1.30

Valenciennes

0.96

Grenoble creates 35% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 178 away

1.17

creates per match

0.95

0.97

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Grenoble

1.17

Valenciennes

0.95

allows per match

Grenoble

0.97

Valenciennes

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Valenciennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw

72%

Grenoble or Valenciennes

72%

Draw or Valenciennes

56%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+

20%

Valenciennes wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals

73%

Grenoble 2+ goals

37%

Grenoble 3+ goals

14%

Valenciennes 1+ goals

62%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

25%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)

62%

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.97 · 152 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 178 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.17 + Valenciennes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Valenciennes attack 0.95 + Grenoble defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Grenoble scores more

44%

level

28%

Valenciennes scores more

28%

Grenoble at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Anani

Grenoble · F

7.9

Match Events

24'

Jekob Jeno

31'

J. TellPenalty

45+2'

Florian Michel

57'

M. de Iriondo← J. Jeno

57'

A. Anani← A. Sanyang

61'

C. Timite← S. Yatabaré

61'

A. Boutoutaou← J. Masson

61'

Q. Lecoeuche← L. Dos Santos

63'

Allan Linguet

65'

Manuel De Iriondo

70'

O. Bunjaku← F. Michel

70'

J. Correa← J. Tell

71'

N. Diliberto← A. Linguet

71'

I. Hamache← F. Ayité

83'

Franck Bambock

85'

J. Correa↳ A. Anani

88'

A. Monfray← F. Bambock

88'

A. Anani↳ A. Monfray

90'

Emmanuel Ntim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrenobleValenciennes

Overview

35%Possession65%

9Total Shots7

1Corners5

22Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots7

4On Target4

2Off Target2

3Blocked1

8Inside Box4

1Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

239Total Passes431

139Accurate Passes331

58%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

22Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1