Valenciennes 0–1 Dunkerque: Result & Stats

Valenciennes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dunkerque

11/11/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade du Hainaut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Valenciennes41%

×Draw27%

Dunkerque32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValenciennesExpected goals in this matchDunkerque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.15

Valenciennes

1.33

Dunkerque

1.15

Valenciennes creates 16% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 92 away

1.19

creates per match

1.03

1.26

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Valenciennes

1.19

Dunkerque

1.03

allows per match

Valenciennes

1.26

Dunkerque

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valenciennes ↓

Dunkerque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Valenciennes or draw

68%

Valenciennes or Dunkerque

73%

Draw or Dunkerque

59%

Winning margin

Valenciennes wins by 2+

19%

Dunkerque wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Valenciennes 1+ goals

74%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

38%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

15%

Dunkerque 1+ goals

68%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

32%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

56%

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valenciennes at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 109 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valenciennes attack 1.19 + Dunkerque defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dunkerque attack 1.03 + Valenciennes defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Valenciennes scores more

41%

level

27%

Dunkerque scores more

32%

Valenciennes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff