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Dunkerque vs Valenciennes — Ligue 2 2018

Dunkerque
Dunkerque
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Valenciennes
Valenciennes
3/19/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 30Stade Marcel-Tribut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Dunkerque42%
×Draw28%
Valenciennes29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunkerque
1.27
Valenciennes
1.01

Dunkerque creates 26% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 109 away

creates per match

Dunkerque
1.13
Valenciennes
0.90

allows per match

Dunkerque
1.11
Valenciennes
1.41

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par
Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Valenciennes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw
71%
Dunkerque or Valenciennes
72%
Draw or Valenciennes
58%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+
19%
Valenciennes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals
72%
Dunkerque 2+ goals
36%
Dunkerque 3+ goals
14%
Valenciennes 1+ goals
64%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
27%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)
59%
Valenciennes (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.13 + Valenciennes defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Valenciennes attack 0.90 + Dunkerque defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dunkerque scores more
42%
level
28%
Valenciennes scores more
29%

Dunkerque at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dunkerque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Dunkerque 1–2 Valenciennes

Valenciennes beat Dunkerque 2-1 in Ligue 2 on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Dunkerque.