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Valenciennes vs Auxerre — Ligue 2 2018

Valenciennes
Valenciennes
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Auxerre
Auxerre
11/1/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade du Hainaut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Valenciennes34%
×Draw27%
Auxerre38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valenciennes
1.19
Auxerre
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 91 away

creates per match

Valenciennes
1.19
Auxerre
1.29

allows per match

Valenciennes
1.26
Auxerre
1.20

finishing

Valenciennes+0.00on par
Auxerre+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valenciennes ↓

Auxerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Valenciennes or draw
62%
Valenciennes or Auxerre
73%
Draw or Auxerre
66%

Winning margin

Valenciennes wins by 2+
14%
Auxerre wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Valenciennes 1+ goals
70%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
33%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
12%
Auxerre 1+ goals
72%
Auxerre 2+ goals
36%
Auxerre 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Valenciennes (draw refunded)
47%
Auxerre (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valenciennes at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 109 matches

Auxerre away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valenciennes attack 1.19 + Auxerre defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Auxerre attack 1.29 + Valenciennes defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Valenciennes scores more
34%
level
27%
Auxerre scores more
38%

Auxerre at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Auxerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valenciennes vs Auxerre

Auxerre beat Valenciennes 2-1 in Ligue 2 on November 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du Hainaut in Valenciennes.