Auxerre 1–0 Valenciennes: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Auxerre

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Valenciennes

4/9/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 32Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Auxerre52%

×Draw26%

Valenciennes22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuxerreExpected goals in this matchValenciennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.89

Auxerre

1.52

Valenciennes

0.89

Auxerre creates 71% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 109 away

1.62

creates per match

0.90

0.87

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Auxerre

1.62

Valenciennes

0.90

allows per match

Auxerre

0.87

Valenciennes

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auxerre+0.00on par

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auxerre ↓

Valenciennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Auxerre or draw

78%

Auxerre or Valenciennes

74%

Draw or Valenciennes

48%

Winning margin

Auxerre wins by 2+

27%

Valenciennes wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Auxerre 1+ goals

78%

Auxerre 2+ goals

45%

Auxerre 3+ goals

20%

Valenciennes 1+ goals

59%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

22%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Auxerre (draw refunded)

70%

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auxerre at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.87 · 91 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auxerre attack 1.62 + Valenciennes defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Valenciennes attack 0.90 + Auxerre defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Auxerre scores more

52%

level

26%

Valenciennes scores more

22%

Auxerre at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Auxerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff