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Valencia vs Racing Santander — La Liga 2026

Valencia
Valencia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
9/11/2010La LigaLa Liga · Round 2Estadio de Mestalla (Valencia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Valencia57%
×Draw22%
Racing Santander20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia
1.93
Racing Santander
1.06

Valencia creates 82% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 11 away

creates per match

Valencia
1.50
Racing Santander
1.00

allows per match

Valencia
1.11
Racing Santander
2.36

finishing

Valencia+0.00on par
Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia ↓

Racing Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Valencia or draw
80%
Valencia or Racing Santander
78%
Draw or Racing Santander
43%

Winning margin

Valencia wins by 2+
34%
Racing Santander wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Valencia 1+ goals
85%
Valencia 2+ goals
57%
Valencia 3+ goals
30%
Racing Santander 1+ goals
65%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
29%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Valencia (draw refunded)
74%
Racing Santander (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia attack 1.50 + Racing Santander defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.93

Racing Santander attack 1.00 + Valencia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Valencia scores more
57%
level
22%
Racing Santander scores more
20%

Valencia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Valencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valencia vs Racing Santander

Valencia beat Racing Santander 1-0 in La Liga on September 11, 2010.

The match was played at Estadio de Mestalla (Valencia).