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Racing Santander vs Valencia — La Liga 2026

Racing Santander
Racing Santander
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Valencia
Valencia
1/31/2011La LigaLa Liga · Round 21Campos de Sport de El Sardinero (Santander)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Racing Santander45%
×Draw27%
Valencia29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Santander
1.41
Valencia
1.08

Racing Santander creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 45 away

creates per match

Racing Santander
1.15
Valencia
1.09

allows per match

Racing Santander
1.08
Valencia
1.67

finishing

Racing Santander+0.00on par
Valencia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander ↓

Valencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Racing Santander or draw
71%
Racing Santander or Valencia
73%
Draw or Valencia
55%

Winning margin

Racing Santander wins by 2+
21%
Valencia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Racing Santander 1+ goals
76%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
41%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
17%
Valencia 1+ goals
66%
Valencia 2+ goals
29%
Valencia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander (draw refunded)
61%
Valencia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Valencia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander attack 1.15 + Valencia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Valencia attack 1.09 + Racing Santander defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Racing Santander scores more
45%
level
27%
Valencia scores more
29%

Racing Santander at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Santander 1 – 1 Valencia

Racing Santander and Valencia drew 1-1 in La Liga on January 31, 2011.

The match was played at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero (Santander).