Valencia 1–0 Osasuna: Result & Stats | La Liga

Valencia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Osasuna

J. Kluivert 74'

3/11/2023

La Liga · Round 25Estadio de Mestalla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Valencia50%

×Draw26%

Osasuna24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValenciaExpected goals in this matchOsasuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.96

Valencia

1.53

Osasuna

0.96

Valencia creates 59% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 32 away

1.44

creates per match

0.84

1.07

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Valencia

1.44

Osasuna

0.84

allows per match

Valencia

1.07

Osasuna

1.62

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Valencia-0.18scores less

Osasuna-0.06on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia ↓

Osasuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Valencia or draw

76%

Valencia or Osasuna

74%

Draw or Osasuna

50%

Winning margin

Valencia wins by 2+

26%

Osasuna wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Valencia 1+ goals

78%

Valencia 2+ goals

45%

Valencia 3+ goals

20%

Osasuna 1+ goals

62%

Osasuna 2+ goals

25%

Osasuna 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Valencia (draw refunded)

68%

Osasuna (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.07 · 39 matches

Osasuna away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.62 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia attack 1.44 + Osasuna defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

Osasuna attack 0.84 + Valencia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Valencia scores more

50%

level

26%

Osasuna scores more

24%

Valencia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Valencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

M. Diakhaby

Valencia · D

7.3

Match Events

3'

David García

16'

Juan Cruz

22'

Sergio HerreraRed card cancelled

36'

Chimy Ávila

58'

Samuel Lino← Samu Castillejo

66'

Nacho Vidal← E. Ávila

68'

Lucas Torró

71'

Hugo Duro

72'

Nico González← André Almeida

73'

A. Budimir← Kike García

73'

D. Brašanac← Pablo Ibáñez

74'

J. Kluivert↳ Samuel Lino

78'

Aimar Oroz← Moncayola

78'

Kike Barja← Lucas Torró

82'

Ilaix Moriba← Y. Musah

82'

Thierry Correia← J. Kluivert

87'

Aimar Oroz

87'

Aimar OrozRed card cancelled

89'

Thierry CorreiaPenalty confirmed

90+6'

José Luis Gayà

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValenciaOsasuna

Overview

54%Possession46%

8Total Shots7

1.66Expected Goals (xG)0.32

12Corners3

8Fouls19

Shots

8Total Shots7

4On Target0

3Off Target5

1Blocked2

7Inside Box3

1Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

350Total Passes299

257Accurate Passes202

73%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls19

2Yellow Cards5

5Offsides2