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Valencia vs Osasuna — La Liga 2026

Valencia
Valencia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Osasuna
Osasuna
Carlos Soler 83' (pen)
A. Budimir 74'
E. Ávila 50' (pen)
4/16/2022La LigaLa Liga · Round 32Estadio de Mestalla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Valencia50%
×Draw26%
Osasuna24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia
1.53
Osasuna
0.98

Valencia creates 56% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 31 away

creates per match

Valencia
1.44
Osasuna
0.86

allows per match

Valencia
1.09
Osasuna
1.62

finishing

Valencia-0.18scores less
Osasuna-0.05on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia ↓

Osasuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Valencia or draw
76%
Valencia or Osasuna
74%
Draw or Osasuna
50%

Winning margin

Valencia wins by 2+
26%
Osasuna wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Valencia 1+ goals
78%
Valencia 2+ goals
45%
Valencia 3+ goals
20%
Osasuna 1+ goals
62%
Osasuna 2+ goals
26%
Osasuna 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Valencia (draw refunded)
67%
Osasuna (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.09 · 38 matches

Osasuna away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia attack 1.44 + Osasuna defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

Osasuna attack 0.86 + Valencia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Valencia scores more
50%
level
26%
Osasuna scores more
24%

Valencia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Valencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
M. DiakhabyValenciaValencia · D
7.3

Match Events

-5'
José Luis Gayà
17'
Oier
23'
Lucas Torró
28'
Dimitri Foulquier
50'
E. ÁvilaPenalty
56'
Hugo GuillamónGoal cancelled
64'
Javi Martínez← Oier
65'
Marcos André← Hélder Costa
65'
Carlos Soler← Ilaix Moriba
65'
Rubén García← Cote
74'
D. Cheryshev← Bryan Gil
74'
D. Brašanac← E. Ávila
74'
A. Budimir↳ Rubén García
81'
Gonçalo GuedesPenalty awarded
83'
Cristhian Mosquera← M. Diakhaby
83'
Jesús Vázquez← José Gayà
83'
Carlos SolerPenalty

Possession

52%Valencia

Shots

11Valencia

Pass accuracy

51%Valencia

Statistics

ValenciaOsasuna
Overview
52%Possession48%
11Total Shots9
9Corners5
11Fouls22
Shots
11Total Shots9
4On Target3
5Off Target5
2Blocked1
7Inside Box5
4Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
337Total Passes318
232Accurate Passes214
69%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls22
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides5

Match Recap: Valencia vs Osasuna

Osasuna beat Valencia 2-1 in La Liga on April 16, 2022.

Goals: E. Ávila (50' pen), A. Budimir (74'), Carlos Soler (83' pen).

Valencia controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio de Mestalla in Valencia.