Valencia 2–2 Malaga: Result & Stats | La Liga

Valencia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Malaga

Álvaro Medrán 34'

Rodrigo 7'

Pablo Fornals 90+3', 3'

12/4/2016

La Liga · Round 14Mestalla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Valencia54%

×Draw25%

Malaga21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValenciaExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.89

Valencia

1.60

Malaga

0.89

Valencia creates 80% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 25 away

1.48

creates per match

0.76

1.02

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Valencia

1.48

Malaga

0.76

allows per match

Valencia

1.02

Malaga

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valencia+0.00on par

Malaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Valencia or draw

79%

Valencia or Malaga

75%

Draw or Malaga

46%

Winning margin

Valencia wins by 2+

29%

Malaga wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Valencia 1+ goals

80%

Valencia 2+ goals

47%

Valencia 3+ goals

22%

Malaga 1+ goals

59%

Malaga 2+ goals

22%

Malaga 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Valencia (draw refunded)

72%

Malaga (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.02 · 140 matches

Malaga away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia attack 1.48 + Malaga defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.60

Malaga attack 0.76 + Valencia defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Valencia scores more

54%

level

25%

Malaga scores more

21%

Valencia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Valencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

Pablo Fornals

Malaga · M

8.9

Match Events

3'

7'

9'

34'

44'

58'

José Gayá← Guilherme Siqueira

63'

Duda← G. Castro

68'

João Cancelo

69'

F. Cartabia← Dani Parejo

69'

Jony← J. Añor

73'

Álvaro Medrán

73'

Ezequiel Garay

77'

Y. En-Nesyri← Michael Santos

84'

Santi Mina← Munir

85'

Aymen Abdennour

90+3'

Pablo Fornals↳ Y. En-Nesyri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValenciaMalaga

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots19

2Corners13

16Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots19

3On Target6

0Off Target9

5Blocked4

7Inside Box12

1Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

319Total Passes480

206Accurate Passes376

65%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls7

5Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1