Malaga 1–2 Valencia: Result & Stats | La Liga

Malaga

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Valencia

B. Ideye 27'

Dani Parejo 85' (pen)

F. Coquelin 80'

2/17/2018

La Liga · Round 24La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Malaga40%

×Draw27%

Valencia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalagaExpected goals in this matchValencia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

Malaga

1.29

Valencia

1.15

Malaga creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 139 away

1.00

creates per match

1.01

1.29

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Malaga

1.00

Valencia

1.01

allows per match

Malaga

1.29

Valencia

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par

Valencia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Valencia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Malaga or draw

67%

Malaga or Valencia

73%

Draw or Valencia

60%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+

18%

Valencia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals

72%

Malaga 2+ goals

37%

Malaga 3+ goals

14%

Valencia 1+ goals

68%

Valencia 2+ goals

32%

Valencia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)

55%

Valencia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Valencia away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.58 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.00 + Valencia defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Valencia attack 1.01 + Malaga defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Malaga scores more

40%

level

27%

Valencia scores more

33%

Malaga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

F. Coquelin

Valencia · M

8.2

Match Events

27'

B. Ideye↳ Recio

33'

60'

61'

62'

68'

70'

73'

M. Lacen← Recio

75'

Chori Castro

75'

Dani Parejo

77'

Carlos Soler

80'

Ferrán Torres← Carlos Soler

80'

F. Coquelin↳ Dani Parejo

83'

D. Rolan← G. Castro

84'

Ignasi Miquel

85'

Dani ParejoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalagaValencia

Overview

33%Possession67%

10Total Shots10

7Corners2

19Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots10

3On Target3

6Off Target5

1Blocked2

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box5

Passing

33%Possession67%

223Total Passes496

122Accurate Passes406

55%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2