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Valencia vs Juventus — UEFA Champions League 2026

Valencia
Valencia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Juventus
Juventus
M. Pjanić 51' (pen), 45' (pen)
9/19/2018UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 1Mestalla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Valencia38%
×Draw23%
Juventus40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia
1.71
Juventus
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 24 away

creates per match

Valencia
2.00
Juventus
1.50

allows per match

Valencia
2.00
Juventus
1.42

finishing

Valencia+0.00on par
Juventus+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia ↓

Juventus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Valencia or draw
60%
Valencia or Juventus
77%
Draw or Juventus
62%

Winning margin

Valencia wins by 2+
19%
Juventus wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Valencia 1+ goals
82%
Valencia 2+ goals
51%
Valencia 3+ goals
24%
Juventus 1+ goals
83%
Juventus 2+ goals
52%
Juventus 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Valencia (draw refunded)
49%
Juventus (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia attack 2.00 + Juventus defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Juventus attack 1.50 + Valencia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Valencia scores more
38%
level
23%
Juventus scores more
40%

Juventus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
W. SzczęsnyJuventusJuventus · G
8.7

Match Events

23'
E. Can← S. Khedira
29'
Cristiano Ronaldo
43'
Dani Parejo
45'
M. PjanićPenalty
49'
Jeison Murillo
51'
M. PjanićPenalty
54'
Rubén Vezo
57'
D. Cheryshev← Rúben Vezo
59'
Alex Sandro
67'
Douglas Costa← M. Pjanić
70'
K. Gameiro← M. Batshuayi
70'
Santi Mina← Gonçalo Guedes
81'
Wojciech Szczęsny
89'
D. Rugani← Douglas Costa
90'
Daniele Rugani

Possession

54%Valencia

Shots

26Valencia

Pass accuracy

51%Valencia

Statistics

ValenciaJuventus
Overview
54%Possession46%
26Total Shots10
10Corners2
14Fouls10
Shots
26Total Shots10
6On Target6
10Off Target3
10Blocked1
10Inside Box9
16Outside Box1
Passing
54%Possession46%
492Total Passes425
435Accurate Passes365
88%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls10
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

UEFA Champions League: Valencia 0–2 Juventus

Juventus beat Valencia 2-0 in UEFA Champions League on September 19, 2018.

Goals: M. Pjanić (45' pen, 51' pen).

Valencia controlled possession (54%) and registered 26 shots to 10.

The match was played at Mestalla in Valencia.