Juventus 1–0 Valencia: Result & Stats

Juventus

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Valencia

M. Mandžukić 59'

11/27/2018

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 5Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Juventus51%

×Draw27%

Valencia22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventusExpected goals in this matchValencia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.85

Juventus

1.43

Valencia

0.85

Juventus creates 68% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

1.86

creates per match

0.71

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Juventus

1.86

Valencia

0.71

allows per match

Juventus

1.00

Valencia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus+0.00on par

Valencia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Valencia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Juventus or draw

78%

Juventus or Valencia

73%

Draw or Valencia

49%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+

25%

Valencia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals

76%

Juventus 2+ goals

42%

Juventus 3+ goals

17%

Valencia 1+ goals

57%

Valencia 2+ goals

21%

Valencia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)

69%

Valencia (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Valencia away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.86 + Valencia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Valencia attack 0.71 + Juventus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Juventus scores more

51%

level

27%

Valencia scores more

22%

Juventus at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Mandžukić

Juventus · F

8.1

Match Events

13'

Rodrigo Bentancur

31'

José Luis Gayà

43'

Geoffrey Kondogbia

46'

J. Cuadrado← Alex Sandro

46'

K. Gameiro← Rodrigo

59'

M. Mandžukić↳ Cristiano Ronaldo

60'

Juan Cuadrado

61'

Mouctar Diakhaby

67'

M. Batshuayi← Santi Mina

69'

Gonçalo Guedes

72'

Carlos Soler← G. Kondogbia

74'

Michy Batshuayi

79'

Douglas Costa← P. Dybala

83'

Blaise Matuidi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventusValencia

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots6

6Corners3

18Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots6

6On Target1

9Off Target2

5Blocked3

10Inside Box2

10Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

537Total Passes428

474Accurate Passes350

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls14

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0