Valencia 2–3 Celta Vigo: Result & Stats | La Liga

Valencia

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Celta Vigo

G. Rodriguez 90', 12'

W. Swedberg 81'

F. Lopez 60'

I. Moriba 56'

4/5/2026

La Liga · Round 30Estadio de Mestalla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Valencia43%

×Draw26%

Celta Vigo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValenciaExpected goals in this matchCelta Vigo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.17

Valencia

1.44

Celta Vigo

1.17

Valencia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

1.43

creates per match

1.25

1.09

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Valencia

1.43

Celta Vigo

1.25

allows per match

Valencia

1.09

Celta Vigo

1.45

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Valencia-0.16scores less

Celta Vigo+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia ↓

Celta Vigo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Valencia or draw

69%

Valencia or Celta Vigo

74%

Draw or Celta Vigo

57%

Winning margin

Valencia wins by 2+

21%

Celta Vigo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Valencia 1+ goals

76%

Valencia 2+ goals

42%

Valencia 3+ goals

18%

Celta Vigo 1+ goals

69%

Celta Vigo 2+ goals

33%

Celta Vigo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Valencia (draw refunded)

58%

Celta Vigo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.09 · 37 matches

Celta Vigo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia attack 1.43 + Celta Vigo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Celta Vigo attack 1.25 + Valencia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Valencia scores more

43%

level

26%

Celta Vigo scores more

31%

Valencia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Valencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

G. Rodriguez

43'

Javi Rodríguez

44'

Marcos Alonso

46'

W. Swedberg← H. Alvarez

46'

J. El Abdellaoui← J. Rodriguez

46'

F. Lopez← P. Duran

56'

I. Moriba

60'

F. Lopez↳ W. Swedberg

63'

U. Sadiq← H. Duro

63'

T. Rendall← A. Almeida

63'

F. Ugrinic← U. Nunez

63'

L. Beltran← J. Guerra

71'

Hugo Sotelo

71'

B. Iglesias← F. Jutgla

78'

A. Danjuma← J. Gaya

81'

W. Swedberg↳ I. Moriba

84'

Guido Rodríguez

88'

Y. Lago← O. Mingueza

90'

G. Rodriguez↳ U. Sadiq

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValenciaCelta

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots9

0.80Expected Goals (xG)1.05

6Corners0

14Fouls21

Shots

13Total Shots9

4On Target5

7Off Target3

2Blocked1

7Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

345Total Passes500

281Accurate Passes436

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-1.28Goals Prevented-1.28

Discipline

14Fouls21

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2