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Celta Vigo vs Valencia — La Liga 2026

Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Valencia
Valencia
H. Alvarez 90'
J. El Abdellaoui 83'
B. Iglesias 59', 33' (pen)
Pepelu 70'
1/3/2026La LigaLa Liga · Round 18Estadio Abanca Balaídos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Celta Vigo48%
×Draw25%
Valencia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta Vigo
1.57
Valencia
1.10

Celta Vigo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 36 away

creates per match

Celta Vigo
1.47
Valencia
1.07

allows per match

Celta Vigo
1.13
Valencia
1.68

finishing

Celta Vigo+0.01on par
Valencia-0.18scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta Vigo ↓

Valencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Celta Vigo or draw
73%
Celta Vigo or Valencia
75%
Draw or Valencia
52%

Winning margin

Celta Vigo wins by 2+
25%
Valencia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Celta Vigo 1+ goals
79%
Celta Vigo 2+ goals
46%
Celta Vigo 3+ goals
21%
Valencia 1+ goals
67%
Valencia 2+ goals
30%
Valencia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Celta Vigo (draw refunded)
64%
Valencia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta Vigo at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.13 · 33 matches

Valencia away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta Vigo attack 1.47 + Valencia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.57

Valencia attack 1.07 + Celta Vigo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Celta Vigo scores more
48%
level
25%
Valencia scores more
27%

Celta Vigo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Celta Vigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
P. Duran← W. Swedberg
33'
B. IglesiasPenalty
53'
Hugo Duro
57'
L. Ramazani← L. Beltran
57'
L. Rioja← T. Correia
59'
B. Iglesias↳ P. Duran
62'
Largie Ramazani
66'
C. Tarrega← D. Foulquier
66'
A. Danjuma← J. Guerra
67'
H. Alvarez← B. Zaragoza
67'
J. El Abdellaoui← B. Iglesias
70'
Pepelu
74'
José Copete
79'
Javi Rodríguez
81'
M. Fernandez← J. Rodriguez
81'
I. Aspas←
81'
D. Lopez← J. Copete
83'
J. El Abdellaoui
90'
H. Alvarez↳ I. Aspas

Possession

40%Celta

Shots

12Celta

Pass accuracy

49%Celta

Statistics

CeltaValencia
Overview
40%Possession60%
12Total Shots16
2.70Expected Goals (xG)1.94
2Corners4
10Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots16
6On Target5
5Off Target8
1Blocked3
10Inside Box10
2Outside Box6
Passing
40%Possession60%
394Total Passes574
338Accurate Passes515
86%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
-0.98Goals Prevented-0.98
Discipline
10Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Celta Vigo vs Valencia

Celta Vigo beat Valencia 4-1 in La Liga on January 3, 2026.

Goals: B. Iglesias (33' pen, 59'), Pepelu (70'), J. El Abdellaoui (83'), H. Alvarez (90').

Valencia controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Abanca Balaídos in Vigo.