Valencia U19 3–5 Ajax U19: Result & Stats

Valencia U19

FT

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Ajax U19

Hugo González 71'

David Montero 69'

Pablo Gozálbez 26'

Y. Regeer 58', 41', 16'

Guillem Molina 52' (OG)

N. Musampa 23'

10/2/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Estadio Antonio Puchades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Valencia U1926%

×Draw20%

Ajax U1955%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valencia U19Expected goals in this matchAjax U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.33

Valencia U19

1.56

Ajax U19

2.33

Ajax U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

1.17

creates per match

2.65

2.00

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Valencia U19

1.17

Ajax U19

2.65

allows per match

Valencia U19

2.00

Ajax U19

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valencia U19+0.00on par

Ajax U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia U19 ↓

Ajax U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Valencia U19 or draw

45%

Valencia U19 or Ajax U19

80%

Draw or Ajax U19

74%

Winning margin

Valencia U19 wins by 2+

12%

Ajax U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Valencia U19 1+ goals

79%

Valencia U19 2+ goals

46%

Valencia U19 3+ goals

21%

Ajax U19 1+ goals

90%

Ajax U19 2+ goals

67%

Ajax U19 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Valencia U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Ajax U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia U19 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Ajax U19 away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia U19 attack 1.17 + Ajax U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ajax U19 attack 2.65 + Valencia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Valencia U19 scores more

26%

level

20%

Ajax U19 scores more

55%

Ajax U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ajax U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Y. Regeer

23'

N. Musampa↳ L. van Gelderen

26'

Pablo Gozálbez

41'

Y. Regeer↳ K. Taylor

46'

Hugo González← N. Nlandu

52'

Guillem MolinaOwn goal

58'

Y. Regeer

61'

Pedro Serna← Y. Musah

69'

David Montero↳ Jordi Escobar

71'

Hugo González

73'

M. Taşçı← Y. Regeer

79'

Xavi Estació← David Montero

87'

S. van der Sloot← E. Llansana

90+1'

M. de Waal← N. Ünüvar

Valencia

Ajax

1

Reiziger

2

A

Gelderen

4

⚽

5

3

10

8

A

Taylor

6

▼

Llansana

11

▼

Ünüvar

7

⚽3

▼

9

1

5

4

🥅

Molina

2

Joseda

3

⚽

▼

Montero

6

Pascual

7

▼

Musah

8

Koindredi

11

⚽

Gozálbez

10

▼

Nlandu

9

A

Escobar

Manager: Miguel Angulo

46'▲Hugo González←▼N. Nlandu

61'▲Pedro Serna←▼Y. Musah

79'▲Xavi Estació←▼David Montero

Valencia U19 substitutes

18González15Serna14Estació13Manuel12Val16Giner17Lechon

Manager: J. Heitinga

73'▲M. Taşçı←▼Y. Regeer

87'▲S. van der Sloot←▼E. Llansana

90+1'▲M. de Waal←▼N. Ünüvar

Ajax U19 substitutes

17Taşçı15Sloot18Waal20Frei19Dostanic12Raatsie16Pinas

UEFA Youth League: Valencia U19 3–5 Ajax U19

Ajax U19 beat Valencia U19 5-3 in UEFA Youth League on October 2, 2019.

Goals: Y. Regeer (16', 41', 58'), N. Musampa (23'), Pablo Gozálbez (26'), Guillem Molina (52' o.g.), David Montero (69'), Hugo González (71').

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Puchades in Paterna.

Valencia U19 vs Ajax U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Valencia U19 3–5 Ajax U19