Ajax U19 1–1 Valencia U19: Result & Stats

Ajax U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valencia U19

Y. Regeer 70'

Jose Lechon 50'

12/10/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ajax U1963%

×Draw18%

Valencia U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ajax U19Expected goals in this matchValencia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

1.35

Ajax U19

2.55

Valencia U19

1.35

Ajax U19 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

2.60

creates per match

1.17

1.53

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Ajax U19

2.60

Valencia U19

1.17

allows per match

Ajax U19

1.53

Valencia U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajax U19+0.00on par

Valencia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax U19 ↓

Valencia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Ajax U19 or draw

81%

Ajax U19 or Valencia U19

82%

Draw or Valencia U19

37%

Winning margin

Ajax U19 wins by 2+

42%

Valencia U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ajax U19 1+ goals

92%

Ajax U19 2+ goals

72%

Ajax U19 3+ goals

46%

Valencia U19 1+ goals

74%

Valencia U19 2+ goals

39%

Valencia U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ajax U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Valencia U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Valencia U19 away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax U19 attack 2.60 + Valencia U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.55

Valencia U19 attack 1.17 + Ajax U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ajax U19 scores more

63%

level

18%

Valencia U19 scores more

19%

Ajax U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ajax U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

J. Contell

38'

S. Van Der Sloot

50'

Jose Lechon↳ Nacho Muñoz

53'

T. Douglas← K. Taylor

59'

D. Warmerdam← N. Kasanwirjo

70'

Perez Martinez← Y. Musah

70'

Y. Regeer

71'

N. Nlandu← Nacho Muñoz

75'

J. Q. Sierra

76'

C. Rasmussen← J. Pynadath

77'

J. Pinas← D. Dostanic

78'

J. Escobar

78'

Carles Aliberch← Gaston Alonso

88'

Brais Val← Xavi Estació

88'

Joseda← J. Sierra

90'

K. Koindredi

Ajax

Valencia

1

Blázquez

2

▼

Estació

4

Molina

5

▼

Sierra

3

Montero

7

▼

Musah

8

Koindredi

11

A

▼

Muñoz

6

▼

Alonso

9

Escobar

10

⚽

Lechon

1

Raatsie

4

Musampa

3

▼

Kasanwirj

5

Salah-Edd

2

Sloot

8

▼

Taylor

6

Llansana

11

Ünüvar

10

⚽

Regeer

7

▼

Pynadath

9

▼

Dostanic

Manager: J. Heitinga

53'▲T. Douglas←▼K. Taylor

59'▲D. Warmerdam←▼N. Kasanwirjo

76'▲C. Rasmussen←▼J. Pynadath

77'▲J. Pinas←▼D. Dostanic

Ajax U19 substitutes

15Douglas16Warmerdam17Rasmussen19Pinas18Fitz-Jim20Frei12Reiziger

Manager: Miguel Angulo

70'▲Perez Martinez←▼Y. Musah

71'▲N. Nlandu←▼Nacho Muñoz

78'▲Carles Aliberch←▼Gaston Alonso

88'▲Brais Val←▼Xavi Estació

88'▲Joseda←▼J. Sierra

Valencia U19 substitutes

17Martinez16Nlandu14Aliberch12Val18Joseda13Manuel15Bosch

Match Recap: Ajax U19 vs Valencia U19

Ajax U19 and Valencia U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on December 10, 2019.

Goals: Jose Lechon (50'), Y. Regeer (70').

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst in Amsterdam-Duivendrecht.

Ajax U19 vs Valencia U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ajax U19 vs Valencia U19