Valencia II 1–1 Silla: Result & Stats

Valencia II

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Silla

11/13/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 12Estadio Antonio Puchades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Valencia II70%

×Draw18%

Silla12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valencia IIExpected goals in this matchSilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.78

Valencia II

2.23

Silla

0.78

Valencia II creates 186% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 78 away

2.67

creates per match

1.00

0.56

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Valencia II

2.67

Silla

1.00

allows per match

Valencia II

0.56

Silla

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valencia II+0.00on par

Silla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia II ↓

Silla →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Valencia II or draw

88%

Valencia II or Silla

82%

Draw or Silla

30%

Winning margin

Valencia II wins by 2+

46%

Silla wins by 2+

Team goals

Valencia II 1+ goals

89%

Valencia II 2+ goals

65%

Valencia II 3+ goals

38%

Silla 1+ goals

54%

Silla 2+ goals

18%

Silla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Valencia II (draw refunded)

86%

Silla (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valencia II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Silla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valencia II attack 2.67 + Silla defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.23

Silla attack 1.00 + Valencia II defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Valencia II scores more

70%

level

18%

Silla scores more

12%

Valencia II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Valencia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff