Silla 0–0 Valencia II: Result & Stats

Silla

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Valencia II

3/20/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 31Complejo Deportivo Municipal Vicent Morera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Silla32%

×Draw32%

Valencia II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SillaExpected goals in this matchValencia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.00

Silla

0.93

Valencia II

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 18 away

0.91

creates per match

0.94

1.07

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Silla

0.91

Valencia II

0.94

allows per match

Silla

1.07

Valencia II

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Silla+0.00on par

Valencia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silla ↓

Valencia II →

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Silla or draw

64%

Silla or Valencia II

68%

Draw or Valencia II

68%

Winning margin

Silla wins by 2+

12%

Valencia II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Silla 1+ goals

61%

Silla 2+ goals

24%

Silla 3+ goals

Valencia II 1+ goals

63%

Valencia II 2+ goals

26%

Valencia II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Silla (draw refunded)

47%

Valencia II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Silla at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 76 matches

Valencia II away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Silla attack 0.91 + Valencia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Valencia II attack 0.94 + Silla defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Silla scores more

32%

level

32%

Valencia II scores more

36%

Valencia II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Valencia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff