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Valencia II vs Roda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Valencia II
Valencia II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Roda
Roda
3/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 30Estadio Antonio Puchades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Valencia II63%
×Draw22%
Roda15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia II
1.81
Roda
0.75

Valencia II creates 141% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 111 away

creates per match

Valencia II
2.67
Roda
0.94

allows per match

Valencia II
0.56
Roda
0.95

finishing

Valencia II+0.00on par
Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia II ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Valencia II or draw
85%
Valencia II or Roda
78%
Draw or Roda
37%

Winning margin

Valencia II wins by 2+
37%
Roda wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Valencia II 1+ goals
84%
Valencia II 2+ goals
54%
Valencia II 3+ goals
27%
Roda 1+ goals
53%
Roda 2+ goals
17%
Roda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Valencia II (draw refunded)
81%
Roda (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Roda away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia II attack 2.67 + Roda defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.81

Roda attack 0.94 + Valencia II defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Valencia II scores more
63%
level
22%
Roda scores more
15%

Valencia II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Valencia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valencia II vs Roda

Valencia II beat Roda 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Puchades in Paterna.