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Roda vs Valencia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Roda
Roda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Valencia II
Valencia II
11/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 11Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Roda39%
×Draw30%
Valencia II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.11
Valencia II
0.96

Roda creates 16% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 18 away

creates per match

Roda
1.28
Valencia II
0.94

allows per match

Roda
0.99
Valencia II
0.94

finishing

Roda+0.00on par
Valencia II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Valencia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Roda or draw
69%
Roda or Valencia II
70%
Draw or Valencia II
61%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
16%
Valencia II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
67%
Roda 2+ goals
30%
Roda 3+ goals
10%
Valencia II 1+ goals
62%
Valencia II 2+ goals
25%
Valencia II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
56%
Valencia II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Valencia II away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.28 + Valencia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Valencia II attack 0.94 + Roda defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Roda scores more
39%
level
30%
Valencia II scores more
31%

Roda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roda vs Valencia II

Roda beat Valencia II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica in Villarreal.