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Valencia II vs Hércules II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Valencia II
Valencia II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hércules II
Hércules II
12/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 18Estadio Antonio Puchades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Valencia II67%
×Draw21%
Hércules II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia II
1.94
Hércules II
0.69

Valencia II creates 181% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 78 away

creates per match

Valencia II
2.67
Hércules II
0.81

allows per match

Valencia II
0.56
Hércules II
1.22

finishing

Valencia II+0.00on par
Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia II ↓

Hércules II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Valencia II or draw
88%
Valencia II or Hércules II
79%
Draw or Hércules II
33%

Winning margin

Valencia II wins by 2+
41%
Hércules II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Valencia II 1+ goals
86%
Valencia II 2+ goals
58%
Valencia II 3+ goals
30%
Hércules II 1+ goals
50%
Hércules II 2+ goals
15%
Hércules II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Valencia II (draw refunded)
84%
Hércules II (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia II attack 2.67 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.94

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Valencia II defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Valencia II scores more
67%
level
21%
Hércules II scores more
12%

Valencia II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Valencia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valencia II 1 – 0 Hércules II

Valencia II beat Hércules II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on December 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Puchades in Paterna.